Once again, talks between Cairo and Addis Adaba have ended in deadlock. In the last week of September Water Ministers from Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt met in the Ethiopian capital to discuss the reservoir filling operations of the dam. Egypt rejected Ethiopia’s proposals. The three countries have been engaging in tripartite talks to narrow differences on the construction and commissioning of the dam but this was the first time they had discussed the filling strategies of the GERD. Cairo is refusing to allow the dam to be started until rules of filling and operation have been agreed. Addis Ababa had pushed to fill the reservoir over a three-year period but Cairo demanded this period be extended to seven years - a concession from its original proposal of twelve. Egypt feels it is imperative that its historical share of Nile water, as stipulated in an agreement signed with Sudan in 1959, go unchanged, yet Ethiopia does not recognize this agreement.
Egypt receives 94% (55.5Bn m3) of its renewable water from the Nile, whereas rainfall provides only 1.3Bn m3. Egypt’s real water resources are currently 59.25Bn m3, yet it uses 80.25Bn m3 pa - 10.7Bn m3 as drinking water, 5.4Bn m3 for industry, 61.65Bn m3 on agriculture, and 2.5Bn m3 evaporates. At present the 21Bn m3 shortfall is made up by 0.35Bn m3 of sea-water desalinisation, 7.15M m3 from well water, and 13.5M via reuse of agricultural and sanitation waste water.
According to a 2017 census Egypt’s population stood at 104.27 million in 2017, increasing by a staggering 18% over the preceding 8 years. That population continues to grow rapidly; the current birth rate is 3.31 per female meaning 2.5 million new water users join the nation each year. In 1995, each citizen received 1,000 m3, yet by 2017 this amount had dropped to 570 m3, and the GoE expects that by 2037 this will further decrease to 370.5 m3. The U.N. World Water Development report for 2018, already warns that Egypt is now below the U.N.’s water poverty threshold.
Accordingly, in addition to two recent birth control campaigns, the government has been working on plans to save water, including treating ground water used for agriculture, improving irrigation systems, educating farmers in modern techniques, increasing desalination from the Red and Mediterranean Seas and raising public awareness of efficient water use through commercials, competitions, and workshops.
As can be seen then, any and all disruption to the 55.5Bn m3 provided by the Nile is of the utmost national importance to Egypt.